Bitcoin on the Brink: Will a Breakdown Below $90K Trigger a Crash to $80K?

Bitcoin’s price action has taken a bearish turn, slipping back into its previous downtrend channel after briefly breaking out during Trump’s inauguration rally. If BTC closes within this channel, further downside could be expected, with critical support levels now in focus.

Adding to the bearish sentiment, options market data reveals that put writers have mostly been wiped out, indicating a market heavily controlled by call writers. The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has dropped to 0.13, signaling an extremely bearish market sentiment. With uncertainty looming, traders are evaluating whether BTC can hold above key levels or if it is heading toward a test of the 200 EMA in the $80K range.

Market Analysis: Weak Structure and Bearish OI Shifts

BTC has re-entered its previous downtrend channel. If the daily close remains within this channel, it could trigger further selling pressure. The key level to hold is $90K, which remains critical for bulls. A failure to hold this level could push BTC toward the 200 EMA in the $80K range.

Open interest for this week expiry

In the options market, put writers have been largely liquidated following a sharp morning drop. Only a few remain at $89K, while call writers continue to dominate. This could indicate a controlled push lower, as there is little put support to cushion the fall.

The Put-Call Ratio (PCR) has dropped to 0.13, reflecting extreme bearishness. A ratio this low suggests the market is overexposed to calls, increasing the risk of forced liquidations if the price continues to decline.

Key Scenarios: What’s Next for Bitcoin?

If BTC closes within the downtrend, it confirms renewed weakness. The failure to hold $90K support could lead to a deeper correction, potentially testing the 200 EMA in the $80K range. With put writers absent, downside protection is minimal, increasing the chances of a liquidation cascade.

Final Verdict: BTC at a Critical Juncture

A close inside the downtrend channel could confirm a move toward the 200 EMA in the $80K range. If BTC reclaims $100K, a recovery could be in play. Market makers continue to control price action, and options expiry will play a key role in the coming days.

Remaining cautious, hedging positions, and maintaining discipline in execution will be crucial as the market navigates this volatile period.